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| A/O Global Intelligence Weekly: North Korea Runs Out Of Options; Independent Inquiry Needed in Charlottesville |
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The Trump adminstration is about to face the first international test of its presidency, and if the chessboard as set today is any indicator, North Korea is running out of room to maneuver and quickly. This pressure from the United States is exactly the right call, and by leveraging economic, diplomatic, and military pressure in exactly the right amounts, the hermit kingdom of Kim Jong-Un is about to discover that the long-running policy of brinkmanship has found a dead end in the Trump presidency.
U.S. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis has been very clear both in public statements and private assurances that a military option is very much alive. Any strike on Guam -- a U.S. territory -- has the near certainty of a massive, overwhelming and decisive response from our miltary assets in the Pacific. North Korea has effectively run out of credible threats to issue: neither a MRBM launch nor an ICBM launch will escape the eye of the United States, and any threat on U.S. dependencies, allies, or the mainland will be met with devastating, unilateral force that will wipe out all doubt as to who holds the upper hand.
Critical for the moment is that the embargo against the North Korean regime remain in place. China maintains they have stopped imports from North Korea -- welcome news once confirmed. To induce further pressure, President Trump is actively reviewing China's trade practices, particularly on theft of U.S. intellectual property -- a longstanding complaint of American manufacturing and technology firms. The Chinese have threatened to suspend the North Korea embargo in retaliation, but this would be a risky and reckless gambit in a Pacific Rim dotted with nations skeptical of China's rise and patronage of North Korea.
In fact, on Fox Business News this afternoon, I discuss precisely the role China has to play in co-operating with the United States in de-escalating tensions on the Korean penninsula:
The United States of America will neither be bullied nor blackmailed by a Chinese government with no good options of their own. India is demonstrating their willingness to stand up to China in border disputes. Chinese acquiescence to American requests to maintain the embargo only lengthens the shelf life of the North Korean regime, a conditon that forestalls U.S. military action which might lead to Korea re-unification or regime collapse -- something the Chinese are desperate to avoid.
The political implications of a North Korea armed with nuclear weapons need to be discussed in an era where nuclear non-proliferation -- the longstanding policy of the United States -- appears to be fraying as Iran and other regimes see value in pursuing such arms. Certainly a North Korea armed with nuclear weapons is an unacceptable threat to South Korea and Japan, two nations with historical grievances that find themselves united on this question.
If the Hwasong-10 IRBM does have the range and capacity to threaten Guam, and the Taepodong and Nodong variants have the ability to strike the Straits of Malaysia, U.S. naval and air assets at places such as Pearl Harbor, or the American mainland, the orbit of nations placed under threat grows remarkably long: Australia, Taiwan, Malaysia, India, Vietnam, South Korea, Japan, Indonesia, and so forth.
China has the ability to resolve the North Korean crisis. Whether it chooses to end the drama or turn a blind eye towards it remains to be seen, but if it has not been made abundantly clear before? North Korea's policy of brinkmanship and China's benefit from such recklessness is coming to an abrupt -- but hopefully not violent -- end.
More after the jump... |
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